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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 16:50 UTC, 06 NOVEMBER 2000
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VALID BEGINNING AT:
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06
NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 NOVEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 45, 15, 12, 12 (06 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 TO 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR & AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NEAR 1 AM
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN / MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN CANADA AND POSSIBLY SOME DARK
SKY SITES OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN U.S.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN U.K. (AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF FRANCE) TO BELGIUM
TO SOUTHERN NETHERLANDS TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF GERMANY TO NORTHERN
POLAND TO LITHUANIA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA
(ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM VELIKIYE LUKI TO TVER TO VOLOGDA TO
SYKTYVKAR AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD). SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND
NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY OBSERVE SOMETHING PRIOR TO SUNRISE, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE ANY ACTIVITY THEREAFTER.
SYNOPSIS...
A moderately vigorous
interplanetary disturbance (thought to be related
to a recent full halo coronal mass ejection) impacted the ACE spacecraft near
09:15 UTC on 06 November. Over the last few hours, conditions have become
increasingly favorable for periods of potentially strong auroral storming.
The most favorable regions to observe activity are expected to be the
northern European regions. Activity will probably be on the decline by the
time North America and New Zealand/Australia re-enters darkness.
Lunar interference will
be moderately strong until after the moon sets
(near 1 am local time). Thereafter, optimal dark sky conditions should exist
for many favorably located northern European regions.
Observers interested
in monitoring auroral activity conditions and being
alerted in real-time to potential visible levels of auroral activity are
encouraged to investigate the software available at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora
This warning will remain
in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07 November. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire. For more up-to-date information,
please consult the Forecast Notes available at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forumnotes.html
WE HAVE A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
* OR *
Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to report sightings,
available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora
** End of Warning **