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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                     ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001

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                  *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER (7 pm EST on 05 November)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 50, 20, 12 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS
   TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO HUNGARY TO NORTHERN
   ROMANIA TO NORTHERN MOLDOVA TO UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. MOST OF NEW
   ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS
   OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A *SLIGHT* CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
   CHILE AND ARGENTINA MAY SPOT BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.


SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral activity is expected to intensify to storm levels following the
anticipated arrival of a potentially strong coronal mass ejection early in
the UTC day of 06 November (evening hours of 05 November over North America).
The disturbance is expected to last approximately 18 to 24 hours. The moon is
roughly 70% illuminated during this period of time and will therefore prove
to be somewhat of a hinderance to observing activity once it rises higher in
the sky. Nevertheless, activity could become intense enough at times to
override the influence of the moon.

     This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07 November. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html


Other Tools:

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
  http://www.spacew.com/aurora

o On-line global discussion forum:
  http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
  http://www.spacew.com/irc
  and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
  http://www.spacew.com/sms


**  End of Warning  **