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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 23:05 UTC, 29 MARCH 2001
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*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
VALID BEGINNING AT:
00:00 UTC ON 30 MARCH
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 01 APRIL
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30
- 31 MARCH (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 50, 20, 15 (30 MARCH - 02 APRIL)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS (MULTIPLE)
MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
OREGON (POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN
COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TO VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA
(APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KALUGA TO JUST SOUTH OF MOSCOW TO
DZERZHINSK TO KIROV, ETC). NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA
SHOULD ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Two (possibly three,
but probably two) potentially influential coronal
mass ejections are currently enroute to the Earth. The first disturbance is
expected to impact the Earth sometime between 06:00 and 12:00 UTC on 30
March. The second is expected to impact late on 30 March or early on 31 March
(UTC days). The first disturbance should result in periods of moderate to
strong auroral storming over the high and many middle latitude regions. The
second disturbance is expected to produce periods of potentially stronger
auroral activity on 31 March and possibly into 01 April. This is a WARNING of
potentially strong auroral activity, not a watch. Confidence levels are
relatively high that periods of moderate to strong activity will occur over
the high and many dark-sky middle latitude regions.
Additional Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections are possible (even
expected) over the next several days as the active sunspot region 9393
continues to look very favorable for producing additional major energetic
events.
This warning will remain
in effect until 19:00 UTC on 01 April. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.
A New IRC Network Service is Available at:
for those interested in monitoring discussions
and activity in real-time.
THERE IS A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
* OR *
Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and
report sightings. It is available at:
** End of Warning **