/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
ISSUED: 15:30 UTC, 20 OCTOBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
** NOTE: A NEW VERSION OF THE STD AURORA MONITOR HAS BEEN RELEASED **
Details at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora
VALID BEGINNING AT:
18:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 21 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 24 OCTOBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22
OCT - 23 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21 OCT - 24 OCTOBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 15, 35, 30 (20 OCT - 23 OCT)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 36 TO 48 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA AND ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Two X-class solar flares
were observed on 19 October that were
associated with confirmed Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. The first of
these disturbances is expected to impact the Earth's magnetosphere late in
the UTC day of 21 October or early on 22 October (late afternoon/early
evening hours of 21 October for North Americans). Our estimates are centered
around an impact time of near 03:00 UTC on 22 October (11 pm EDT on *21*
October) give or take several hours. Auroral activity could intensify to
active or perhaps even sporadic minor storm levels capable of being observed
across many dark-sky middle latitude regions.
The second disturbance
is expected to arrive later on 22 October and
will have the effect of prolonging auroral activity through 23 October.
Barring additional possible Earthward directed coronal mass ejections, the
activity should then begin to subside by the early part of the UTC day of
24 October.
This watch will remain
in effect until 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 24
October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
* OR *
Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and
report sightings. It is available at:
or from Sky & Telescope:
(search for Aurora)
For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)
** End of Watch **