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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                    UPDATED: 16:30 UTC, 07 SEPTEMBER 2002

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                      *** DISTURBANCE ARRIVAL ALERT ***
            *** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

  For North Americans, begin watching TONIGHT, the evening of 07 September.


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 08 SEPTEMBER

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 07 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07 - 08 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 20, 12, 12 (07 SEP - 10 SEP)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO
   NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO NORTHERN
   VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO
   BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     A moderately strong interplanetary shock was observed passing the ACE
spacecraft near 16:18 UTC (12:18 pm EDT) on 07 September. The disturbance has
good characteristics that are expected to help drive periods of intensified
auroral storm activity. Middle latitude observers are encouraged to keep a
close eye on conditions. European and Russian observers will be
optimally placed for observing activity. There is some doubt as to whether
the activity will remain strong enough to permit widespread middle latitude
sightings by the time North America sees darkness. Keep a close eye on
current conditions by visiting: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html and
http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html where reports of activity will be
displayed. The new phase of the moon will allow unrestricted and optimal
observations of activity under dark skies - ideal conditions for observing
the intricate details of auroral activity.

     This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 08 September. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

     Please note that a new real-time aurora image gallery is available for
public use at: http://www.spacew.com/gallery. This service is capable of
publishing imagery within 1 to 2 minutes of the receipt of the images. As a
result, it is an ideal way for people to show others what they are seeing. If
you have a digital camera and are able to take a snapshot of auroral
activity, send your image to the gallery so other's who may be less fortunate
can observe what you are seeing. If you are taking pictures with film, please
feel free to submit your images after you have developed your film.

     For help and instructions on how to use the service, go to:
http://www.spacew.com/help.html

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

           CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:
                    http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

              CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:
                        http://www.spacew.com/gallery


**  End of Warning  **