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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                  WARNING EXTENDED: 23:00 UTC, 30 OCTOBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30-31 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 200, 70, 20, 20 (30 OCTOBER  - 02 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: VERY GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO SOUTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO
   NORTHERN TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHERN
   ALABAMA TO NORTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO HUNGARY TO UKRAINE TO
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
   POTENTIALLY STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     Significant and serious auroral storming has been occuring for the last
4 to 6 hours across Russia, Europe and the U.K.. Sightings into the deep
European latitudes near northern Italy have been reported. This auroral oval
has expanded considerably equatorward and is expected to remain in an
unstable and expanded state for another 6 to 12 hours. As a result, there is
a chance North American observers may spot periods of significant auroral
activity TONIGHT, Thursday night, 30 October.

     North America will probably see the tail end of the disturbance.
Nevertheless, periods of auroral activity could become rather intense and
visible into the low latitude regions. Observers are encouraged to look up
tonight and be patient for activity if it isn't immediately apparent.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
31 October. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **