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                MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH UPGRADED TO A WARNING

                Issued: 20:15 UTC on 07 November 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 10 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 07-08, THEN 09 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-10 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 45, 60, 30 (07 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 - 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
   MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
CENTRAL
   RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
   ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A moderately strong solar disturbance impacted the Earth near 18:27 UTC
on 07 November. This disturbance was larger than anticipated and is
producing
periods of enhanced auroral activity. More significant storm-level auroral
activity is expected over the next 12 to 18 hours as this disturbance
matures. Widespread observations of auroral activity may be possible
tonight.

     Another potentially strong disturbance could arrive on 09 November.
Analysis of the solar event is still in-progress. We expect the latter half
of the UTC day of 08 November to be less active and then pick up again when
this next disturbance arrives.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
10 November. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **