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                MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                Upgraded: 20:10 UTC on 21 January 2005

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 23 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21-22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21-23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 40, 20, 12 (21 - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
   SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
   CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
   UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

     The arrival of a fairly strong interplanetary coronal mass ejection
(ICME) disturbance has prompted the upgrade of the mid-latitude aurora watch
to a mid-latitude aurora warning. Periods of moderate to strong auroral
storming could be oberved over the next 12 to 36 hours that should become
visible over widespread mid-latitude regions. There is also a slight chance
some activity may become visible into the low latitudes. A low latitude
aurora watch is being issued as well.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
23 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **