/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
                     LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                       ISSUED: 02:00 UTC, 15 JULY 2000

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC 15 JULY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 17 JULY

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15 - 16 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 15 - 17 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 60, 100, 50, 20 (15 JULY - 18 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL TEXAS TO
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA.


ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   PORTUGAL TO SPAIN TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO
   NORTHERN CROATIA TO NORTHERN YUGOSLAVIA TO NORTHERN ROMANIA TO UKRAINE TO
   CENTRAL RUSSIA.


 ** New Aurora Software Available for Download. See: www.spacew.com/aurora **

SYNOPSIS...

     A large solar flare and associated high velocity coronal mass ejection
is in-transit to the Earth. It is expected to impact the Earth anytime after
approximately 18:00 UTC on 15 July, perhaps a few hours earlier or later. It
is expected to produce a major to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm that
may become visible throughout the U.S., Europe, Australia and New Zealand.

     This is a potentially significant event and even though the moon will be
bright and nearly full, activity is expected to be strong enough to override
much of the moonlight. The moons lower peak altitude in the sky (compared to
previous months) for northern hemisphere observers will also help produce
darker northern horizons which may improve the prospects of observing
activity across the lower latitudes.

     This joint middle latitude auroral activity warning and low latitude
auroral activity watch become active at 18:00 UTC on 15 July. The best
locations to observe activity will depend heavily upon the time of arrival of
the disturbance and its duration. Here are some guidelines:

Arrival Time   Geographic Region Expected to see Maximal Activity
------------   --------------------------------------------------
00 - 06 UTC    North America, Australia, New Zealand
06 - 12 UTC    Australia, New Zealand, Russia
12 - 18 UTC    Russia, Europe, U.K.
18 - 24 UTC    Europe, U.K., North America

     The disturbance is expected to last at least 18 to 24 hours and may
linger somewhat beyond then with post-storm residual substorming being
potentially more significant than normal. As a result, even though the
disturbance subsides later on 16 and 17 July, observations of activity from
the middle latitudes may still be possible (but at weaker levels of
intensity) even on 17 July. By the end of the UTC day of 17 July, conditions
should be mostly quiet to unsettled, barring further energetic solar
outbursts.

     The middle latitude auroral activity warning will remain active until
19:00 UTC on 17 July. The low latitude auroral activity watch will remain
active until 19:00 UTC on 16 July. They will then be updated or allowed to
expire at their respective times.


              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

                                    * OR *

           Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to report sightings,
                  available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora


**  End of Warning  **