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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                    WATCH ISSUED: 05:05 UTC, 10 JULY 2000

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 ACTIVATION: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 12 JULY

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10-11 JULY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10-12 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 15, 12 (10 JULY - 12 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER 2:00 AM LOCAL TIME

EXPECTED OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY _MAY_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
   MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN
   OR POSSIBLY CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.


ACTIVITY _MAY_ ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORWAY TO CENTRAL SWEDEN TO CENTRAL
     FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND
     SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
        

SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral activity is expected to intensify to occasional minor storm
levels following the anticipated arrival of a coronal mass ejection
disturbance on 10 or 11 July. Original predictions call for the disturbance
to arrive sometime on 11 July. However, recent data suggests the disturbance
may be travelling at a higher than expected velocity and may therefore arrive
on 10 July (perhaps near the mid-UTC day of 10 July). The disturbance has the
potential of producing periods of visible auroral activity over many
upper-middle and high latitude dark-sky locations. The best opportunity to
view activity will be near and after local midnight, when the moon will begin
setting. Moonset occurs near 2:00 am local time. The disturbance may last
approximately 24 to 36 hours, depending on its velocity.

     All interested observers are welcome to download a new software program
that should make observing auroral activity world wide easier and more
enjoyable. The software is available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora.

     This watch will be updated or allowed to expire at 19:00 UTC on 12 July.

     Observers who suspect they have observed auroral activity may use the
aforementioned software to report their sightings to the Auroral Activity
Observation Netowrk, or may submit their findings to our site at:

                   http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html.

           Near-realtime POLAR spacecraft imagery and numerous other
                         resources are available at:

                    http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html


**  End of Watch  **